Will the Syria ceasefire survive? Key risks explained: analysis
A ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and the Kurdish-led SDF has been announced, but fighting is still reported near the Tishrin Dam and a prison holding ISIL fighters. Syrian forces are consolidating their presence in the northeast, clearing explosives reportedly planted by the SDF. The deal includes integrating tens of thousands of SDF fighters into the Syrian army and transferring control of oil and gas fields, as well as prisons holding ISIL detainees, to Damascus.Syrian political analyst Labib Nahhas, speaking in an Al Jazeera interview, warns that the situation could escalate into a prison break if the ceasefire collapses or if coordination fails, highlighting the SDF’s leverage over ISIL detainees. He stresses the need for clear security vetting and a defined governance plan for Kurdish-majority areas, particularly Al-Hasaka, where the transition to state control remains uncertain. Nahhas also raises concerns about the future of the SDF as a military force and the unclear status of foreign fighters and PKK-linked individuals.
Overall, he believes the ceasefire may hold in a compromised way, as the SDF has lost key leverage and is unlikely to engage in a large-scale confrontation with Syrian authorities, but he insists the Damascus talks must clarify the agreement’s vague points to prevent further instability.
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