Bitcoin vs Stocks vs Gold, The Only Fair Test
Are Bitcoin bears manipulating CAGR by cherry-picking cycle tops and troughs? In this video, Adam Livingston breaks down rolling 1-year and 2-year returns, win rates vs SPY, gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and a real-world DCA investor test. When you stop arguing from screenshots and start arguing from distributions, the Bitcoin underperformance narrative collapses.Timestamps
00:00 Bitcoin Bears & the 5-Year CAGR Narrative
00:35 Why CAGR Is a Misleading Two-Point Statistic
02:37 Ask the Right Question: Rolling Windows, Distributions & Win Rates
03:49 Recreating the Bear Case
06:16 Macro Regimes & Correlation: Bitcoin Moves With Risk
07:35 The Hammer: 2-Year Rolling Win Rates vs S&P, Gold & Silver
10:09 Zoom In: 1-Year Windows, Volatility, and Why Longer Horizons Win
12:28 Real-World Investing: Dollar-Cost Averaging Test vs Lump Sum
14:49 Wrap-Up: Key Takeaways and Bear Ammo
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