Bonds Are the Real Risk Right Now, Not Stocks | RRG Outlook

Stocks are holding up, but the bond market is flashing warning signs. Julius de Kempenaer uses Relative Rotation Graphs to break down asset classes, bonds, commodities, and all 11 sectors.

Recorded September 15, 2026, just after the US open, this RRG update walks down the investment pyramid from asset classes to the groups inside them, then finishes with an updated portfolio construction framework.

In this video:

- Bitcoin and commodities make strong rotations toward the leading quadrant
- SPY is still a long-term relative leader but is losing momentum, sitting at support with negative divergences in RSI and MACD
- Why Julius thinks the bond market, not stocks, is where the real risk sits
- The Treasury and corporate bond yield curves both favor the short end, with the long end best avoided
- An important RRG reminder: "outperforming" the benchmark can just mean falling more slowly
- Why the commodity benchmark changed, and how that shifts the tails
- Energy pushes into the leading quadrant while livestock breaks down
- Sector rotation: energy leads, industrials hook sharply lower, staples and communication services improve
- Consumer discretionary is resting on a multi-year support line
- Why technology will decide whether SPY can rally again

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither the Show Participants
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00:00 Intro
00:34 Recap of the Last RRG Outlook
02:13 Asset Class Rotation: Bitcoin and Commodities Surge
05:08 SPY: Long-Term Leader, Short-Term Warning Signs
09:40 Bonds: Where the Real Risk Is
10:40 Treasury Yield Curve: Favor the Short End
11:51 Corporate Bonds: Same Story, Weak Charts
13:41 RRG Reminder: Outperforming Can Mean Falling Slower
14:28 Commodities: Why the Benchmark Changed
17:59 Energy Breaks Into Leading, Livestock Breaks Down
19:05 Sector Rotation: The Spread Is Back
22:31 Tech Stabilizes, Real Estate and Utilities Sink
25:05 Sector Charts: XLC Improves, XLI Breaks Down
26:22 Consumer Discretionary at Multi-Year Support
27:20 Technology: The Key to the Next SPY Rally
28:46 Updated Portfolio Construction Framework
29:48 Wrap-Up

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