Bitcoin Doesn't Need a Dollar Crisis to Go Hyperbolic
There are three ways Bitcoin could go hyperbolic, and only one of them requires the dollar to break.Cory Klippsten makes the strongest case for each path, then says how he actually expects it to play out.
Path one is the dollar breaking: a genuine loss of confidence in the currency, not four or five percent inflation. He argues we're not there. The five-year, five-year forward inflation expectation is currently 2.33%, financial crises usually create a scramble for dollars before a flight from them, and Paul Volcker's Fed broke a worse cycle in the early 1980s.
Path two is the dollar surviving while years of debasement push savings into scarce assets, the way gold went from $35 an ounce to $850 in the 1970s. Bitcoin is still so much smaller than the pools of wealth in gold, real estate, equities and government debt that even a modest shift in allocation could create an enormous repricing.
Path three needs no dollar crisis at all. The obstacles that keep enormous pools of capital out of Bitcoin, custody, regulation, investment mandates and accounting treatment, change much faster than the global monetary system. If ownership can increase faster than higher prices bring Bitcoin back onto the market, Bitcoin reprices without anything going particularly wrong with the dollar.
His base case is a long, messy monetary competition rather than an overnight takeover. Changing the monetary system probably takes decades. Bitcoin doesn't have to wait for that process before it gets repriced.
Chapters
0:00 Three ways Bitcoin could go hyperbolic
0:59 Path one: the dollar breaks
2:15 Why crises create a scramble for dollars
2:47 From a credit crisis to a currency crisis
3:47 Volcker, and why warning signs don't settle it
4:41 Why dollar collapse isn't the base case
5:01 Path two: the dollar survives, savings move
5:34 Gold in the 1970s
6:07 A modest shift in allocation
6:44 Path three: no dollar crisis at all
7:15 Who is able to own Bitcoin
8:23 Real Bitcoin, not an IOU
8:57 The best money humans have ever had
9:39 Can ownership outrun the sellers?
10:43 Path two versus path three
11:17 The base case
12:14 Fifty years, or six months
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