US ‘miscalculation’ complicates Iran talks, say experts; mediation continues

As the two-week ceasefire deadline between Iran and the United States approaches, tensions remain high ahead of expected talks in Islamabad, despite indications both sides may still pursue diplomacy.
Mohamad Elmasry, professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera the situation is “very precarious”, saying Washington “miscalculated” by declaring victory after Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz instead of also de-escalating, making negotiations more difficult following the US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship.
He said neither side has an appetite for renewed war but both are seeking an “off ramp”, warning positions have hardened, with the IRGC gaining greater influence during wartime. Elmasry added Iran may compromise on some of its demands but “won’t surrender all of them”.
Nilofer Afridi Qazi, a public policy specialist, told Al Jazeera from Islamabad that Pakistan is working “25-7” to move the dialogue forward, with expectations both sides will attend a second round of talks.
Elmasry described Pakistan as a “perfect mediator” due to its ties with both sides, helping bridge a “fundamental lack of trust”.
Qazi said mixed messaging is not unique to Iran, pointing to multiple centres of power globally and highlighting the “elephant in the room” — Israel’s influence on US decision-making — which she warned could undermine the peace process.
Both guests said talks are likely, but cautioned progress will be difficult amid rising tensions, hardened positions and deep mistrust.

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