Day 19: US Burning Through Munitions Amid Gamble to Topple Iran, Cut China Off From Oil with 1 War
- The US has burned through huge quantities of high-end weapons on Iran it had been stockpiling for war it sought to provoke with China in the Asia-Pacific;- The US not only likely never had enough weapons for a war with China, but it will be unable to even replace what it has spent on Iran for years to come;
- The US war on Iran is thus likely an attempt to reduce or remove 2 obstacles to US primacy with one war, degrading or toppling Iran and the imposition of a global maritime oil blockade on China at its source (US capture of Venezuela, US strikes on Russian energy production, and now the incremental shutdown of energy exports from the Middle East);
- The US likely hopes it can emerge from the global economic crisis it is creating “stronger” relative to China;
References:
CSIS - Iran War Cost Estimate Update: $11.3 Billion at Day 6, $16.5 Billion at Day 12 (Mar. 13, 2026):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-war-cost-estimate-update-113-billion-day-6-165-billion-day-12#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20Department%20of%20Defense,first%20days%20of%20the%20war.
WaPo - Early Iran strikes cost $5.6 billion in munitions, Pentagon estimates (Mar. 9, 2026):
https://archive.ph/VIDXT
Defense One - Shahed drone meets clone in US war on Iran (Feb. 28, 2026):
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2026/02/shahed-drone-meets-clone-us-iran-exchange-strikes/411785/
CNN - The Iran war’s troubling missile math (Mar. 4, 2026):
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/04/politics/missiles-weapons-stockpile-iran-us-war#:~:text=The%20American-made%20THAAD%20mobile,without%20increasing%20production%20to%20match.
Naval War College Review - A Maritime Oil Blockade Against China (2018):
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1735&context=nwc-review
NYT - U.S. STRATEGY PLAN CALLS FOR INSURING NO RIVALS DEVELOP (1992):
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/03/08/world/us-strategy-plan-calls-for-insuring-no-rivals-develop.html
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