What Everybody Misunderstands About U.S. Debt
Get your tickets for the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, January 24–25, 2027: https://vricmedia.com/conference/vancouverOn October 7, the United States sold $39 billion of ten-year debt at 5.3%, the highest rate at any such sale since 2000. Every bond found a buyer. That is the part almost everybody misreads. A Treasury auction is built so it cannot fail, because 25 banks are required to bid at every one. The national debt has doubled to more than $40 trillion in about a decade. The number of those banks has barely moved, and one of them walked away in October. The government now pays its lenders $1.1 trillion a year, more than it spends on the military. The question was never whether Washington can find lenders. It is what they charge, and who is quietly leaving. Four numbers, published minutes after every sale, show the answer. Almost nobody reads them.
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00:00 Everybody is an expert on U.S. debt
00:50 Watch what lenders do
01:47 What a Treasury is
02:35 Why prices fall and yields rise
03:23 Above & Beyond Summit, VRIC Vancouver and Dallas
04:22 How a Treasury auction works
04:58 When-issued trading
05:32 The bidding
06:11 The stop-out rate
07:35 The rule that matters most
07:56 The seller and the referee
09:11 Primary dealers
11:33 Direct bidders
12:15 Indirect bidders
13:24 Four numbers to watch
13:41 Bid-to-cover ratio
14:08 The tail
15:24 Indirect share
15:49 Dealer share
16:31 Strong auction vs weak auction
17:02 Strong demand or cracking?
17:50 Three vulnerabilities
19:02 Who has already stepped back
20:27 Five warning signs
22:27 The bottom line
23:32 VRIC, Dallas and Scottsdale
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