US-Iran talks in doubt after seizure of Iranian ship fuels tensions: Analysis

As the two-week US-Iran ceasefire deadline approaches, negotiations remain stalled with Iran's foreign ministry leaving the door open for diplomacy while Tehran debates its next move following the US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship.
An Al Jazeera discussion panel examined the state of talks, with Mohammad Islami, Research Fellow in Middle East and North African Studies at Tehran University, telling the programme that Tehran is receiving "complex messages" from the Trump administration, making the situation "very, very complicated", adding that there is a "serious debate in Tehran" about whether Iran will attend talks at all.
Ellie Geranmayeh, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said from London that things were progressing positively until President Trump announced the US blockade would remain and then imposed it against an Iranian cargo vessel, arguing that "if you want the conditions to have a political negotiation, the US is going to need to take a de-escalatory step."
Geranmayeh warned that if the ceasefire expires without extension, Iran could retaliate against US-flagged or US-linked ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, or more broadly against US interests in the Middle East.
Islami said Trump is "not following any specific strategy" and that in Tehran, "everybody's waiting for the war to be continued" as policymakers do not trust the Americans.
Geranmayeh added that while decision-making in Iran remains consensus-based, the security and military establishment "has a bigger voice because we are in wartime conditions."

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