Deliberate or collateral? David Des Roches analyses Russia’s targeting of civilians in Ukraine

David Des Roches, a former Pentagon and NATO operations director and professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera that Russia's deadly airstrikes on Ukrainian residential areas appear to be deliberate targeting rather than collateral damage.
He noted that while three possibilities exist—a direct targeted strike, debris from an intercepted missile, or a malfunctioning interceptor—the scale of destruction and Russia's pattern of behavior make deliberate targeting the most likely explanation.
Des Roches said Russia is likely using high-trajectory missiles that are nearly impossible to intercept, such as the Oreshnik missile, which is basically indefensible because it goes so high and comes in so fast.
He characterized Russia's actions as tactical retaliation for Ukraine's attacks on Russian logistics and airfields, not a strategic shift.
On Ukraine's response, Des Roches noted that Ukraine has generally not targeted civilian infrastructure but has focused on military targets far from the battlefield, including destroying two maritime patrol aircraft at Taganrog airfield and targeting the oil industry on the Sea of Azov.
He expects Ukraine to continue pressuring the main highway that supplies Crimea.
Regarding the future of the conflict, Des Roches said he expects more tit-for-tat escalation, with Ukraine finding its strategy of targeting Russian energy and logistics productive, while Putin is in a "regime existential war" and cannot accept a ceasefire that would give him breathing room to reconstitute and attack again.
He noted that all the "stupid generals" are dead on the Russian side, and the next attack will be smarter. On NATO and European response, Des Roches said training and weapons provision are increasing, particularly by European members who see an existential threat, including Poland and the Baltic states. While the United States remains a point of concern, he believes American interests lie with NATO and relations remain strong.

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