Fed Causes a Recession
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0:00 The Fed Is Doing Something That Always Causes Recessions
0:20 Two Year vs Ten Year Treasury Yields Right Now
1:03 Why the Ten Year Yield Matters Most for the Economy
1:41 What a Normal Yield Curve Looks Like
2:10 What an Inverted Yield Curve Means
2:48 The Yield Curve Was Inverted for Over Two Years
3:09 Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions 22 Out of 28 Times
3:34 The Steepening After Inversion Is More Important
4:14 Every Time the Fed Cuts Rates a Recession Follows
4:41 Every Recession Since 1980 Followed This Pattern
5:23 Why This Time Might Be Different From the Pattern
6:10 The Average Lag Time Is 13 Months After Steepening
7:07 Long and Variable Lags Make Timing Impossible
8:12 Bear Markets and Recessions Are Highly Correlated
9:34 Recessions and Bear Markets Over the Past 70 Years
10:04 Timing the Market Is Almost Impossible
11:03 The Stock Market Is a Forward Looking Machine
11:27 All Time Highs Don't Mean You Should Sell
12:01 Maybe We Already Had the Recession and Bear Market
12:42 GDP Declined in 2022 and 2025 Without Official Recession
13:03 Investing at All Time Highs Produces Better Returns
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