What Could Turn Indian Markets Around? | Ritesh Jain
What could turn Indian markets around, and where might the next big winners come from? We put both questions to Ritesh Jain on 21 October 2026. Oil was still hostage to the Strait of Hormuz, gold had fallen despite the wartime uncertainty, and the US midterms were two weeks away. Headlines like these go stale quickly. How Ritesh connects them is the part worth keeping.Ishmohit Arora calls himself a micro guy: companies, factory visits, con calls. So when SOIC students kept asking for macro, he called the person he reads for it. Ritesh has been CIO at BNP Paribas Mutual Fund and Tata Mutual Fund and founded Pinetree Macro. This is his second conversation on SOIC.
He starts with a US market that, in his view, is propped up by a few AI names while housing and auto loans show strain. His bigger argument is that America no longer wants to be the world's hegemon. A country trying to grow out of its debt and bring factories home has little appetite for the deficits a reserve currency demands. So the dollar becomes one currency among many, and familiar correlations start to break.
Ritesh reads bonds before stocks, and the bonds are telling him there's trouble in wonderland for the AI build-out. He explains why the circular financing between Nvidia and CoreWeave looks a lot like 1999, and why a world-class business can still be dead money for years.
On gold's fall, he argues that countries needing dollars for oil faced constraints on selling US Treasuries, so they turned to gold instead. You cannot eat gold, as he puts it. Over the longer term, he is watching central-bank demand.
Which brings us back to India. Ritesh sees two potential catalysts: lower oil prices and a cooling AI trade. He argues that money moving out of US AI stocks could find opportunities here. He also expects new free trade agreements to bring in more manufacturing than most investors realise. All of it runs on electricity, which is why he thinks electrification is only on day three of a five-day Test match. Most of tomorrow's winners, he says, aren't in today's index.
His advice for younger investors building macro judgment: there's no shortcut. Read books. Pay for good research. Listen to podcasts in full. Ritesh's team sends him AI summaries every day. He still listens.
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CHAPTERS
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0:00 Intro: the SOIC Podcast with Ritesh Jain
2:38 A protectionist US, yet US assets keep winning
7:27 Why old correlations are breaking
13:23 Is the AI bubble deflating?
18:12 Electrification after the data-centre boom
22:01 Self-reliance, while China cuts support
27:04 Think about the incentives of countries
29:06 SOIC membership: the medical devices webinar
30:58 Why did gold fall in a crisis?
39:55 What if the war drags on?
45:51 A modern-day cold war?
47:33 Where will the money go next?
51:18 Will AI make healthcare the big winner?
54:19 Themes for the next 5-10 years
56:49 How to build your macro thinking
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FOLLOW RITESH JAIN
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Linktree:
https://linktr.ee/ritesh_jain_
X:
https://x.com/riteshmjn
Pinetree Macro Research:
https://www.pinetreemacro.com/
Which part made you rethink your view of the market? Tell us in the comments.
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DISCLAIMER
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This video is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in it constitutes investment advice, research or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Any stocks, sectors or themes mentioned are used only to illustrate investing frameworks and market history.
Views expressed are personal, current as of the recording date and may change without notice. Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. Please read all related documents carefully and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser before making investment decisions.
SOIC Intelligent Research LLP is registered with SEBI under the SEBI Research Analysts Regulations, 2014, with registration number INH000012582.
#SOIC #RiteshJain #IndianStockMarket Receive SMS online on sms24.me
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