7 Hindenburg Omen Signals in 2026, Here's What History Says Comes Next (Pay ATTENTION!)
The Hindenburg Omen keeps firing in 2026, but does this famous market top indicator actually signal trouble ahead? Dave Keller breaks down the three components behind the Hindenburg Omen, explains why he treats it more like a "tornado siren" than an outright sell signal, and looks back at previous signals to see what happened next.More importantly, Dave examines just how unusual the recent cluster of signals has been, comparing today's setup with periods surrounding some significant market peaks over the last 30 years. He finishes with the S&P 500 and the key 7600 support level that could help determine whether the latest Hindenburg Omen is simply another warning or an early indication of a much more significant market decline!
LINKS
Dave's Hindenburg Omen chart: https://schrts.co/PkewDDBM
Dave's interview with Adam Koós: https://youtu.be/D6WGVpOKJ4M
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0:00 Intro — Labor Day weekend & why the Hindenburg Omen keeps coming up
0:48 What we'll cover: structure, history & market change
2:32 The Hindenburg Omen as a "composite indicator"
3:00 Component 1: NYSE Composite in an uptrend
3:20 Component 2: new highs AND new lows ≥ 2.5% of listings
3:53 Why "indecision" matters — the research behind it
4:35 Component 3: McClellan Oscillator turns negative
5:09 Putting it together + the "multiple signals in 20 days" rule
5:35 Why it's called the "Hindenburg" omen
5:56 Reading the chart: the composite & recent clusters
7:00 Walking the 2025–2026 signals vs the S&P 500
8:00 The last five years: 2021 & 2024 signals
9:05 Why it works sometimes and misses other times
9:32 The tornado-siren analogy
11:35 A warning sign, not a sell signal
12:16 The key filter: did support break? (historical cases)
14:19 How the support filter improves the hit rate
14:43 How many signals? 7 clusters — most in years
15:02 A 30-year history lesson
16:04 Concentrated clusters: 2018, 2007 & 2006
18:16 Signals over 3–6 months: 5 of 6 preceded a major top
20:18 A 50-year view: how market structure changed the indicator
22:40 What it means for investors today
23:42 The line in the sand: S&P 500 at 7600 (and 7300 / 200-day)
25:06 Wrap-up & where to follow
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