Why most AI products fail - Matthew Certner (IBM)
You can’t build great products on gut instinct, and yet, according to IBM’s global study of 1,000 enterprises, 77% of organisations using generative AI aren’t seeing any financial benefit. In this episode on The Product Experience podcast, Lily Smith sits down with Matthew Certner, Digital Product Engineering and Design Partner at IBM, to unpack the four key traits that drive ROI in AI-powered product teams: flexibility, incremental and targeted delivery, data-led decisions, and cross-functional collaboration.Recorded live at the Industry conference, this conversation offers practical lessons for any product leader navigating the hype and reality of AI adoption.
Key Takeaways
— Behaviour trumps technology. The top 20% of companies seeing ROI from AI succeed because of how their teams work, not just what tools they use.
— Four behaviours define high-performing teams: flexibility, incremental and targeted delivery, data-led decisions, and cross-functional collaboration.
— Value orchestration matters. Successful teams build the right product, build the product right, and make the product successful — with continuous feedback loops.
— Generative AI isn’t a strategy. Treat it as an enabler, not the goal. Success depends on user and business value, not just technical adoption.
— The Golden Thread keeps teams aligned. A living artefact linking vision, value, and execution ensures everyone is building towards measurable outcomes.
— Innovation at enterprise scale needs structure. IBM Garage’s “co-create, co-execute, co-operate” model shows how large organisations can move fast without chaos.
— 95% of new products will fail. The differentiator will be those that combine data discipline, user focus, and purpose-driven innovation.
Chapters
00:00 – The danger of building on gut instinct
00:37 – IBM’s global study on generative and agentic AI adoption
01:00 – Meet Matthew Certner, Digital Product Engineering Partner at IBM
02:00 – Why most enterprises aren’t realising ROI from AI
04:50 – What the top-performing 20% of companies do differently
05:10 – The four key behaviours driving success
07:00 – Flexibility: adapting quickly to market feedback
08:10 – Incremental and targeted delivery — the “golden thread” principle
10:30 – Data-led decision-making versus the HIPPO effect
11:45 – Cross-functional collaboration and robust adoption
13:10 – Behavioural factors that make or break AI adoption
14:20 – Inside IBM’s “value orchestration” framework
15:10 – The Golden Thread in practice — a sticky-note story from Dallas
17:10 – Transparency and traceability in product development
18:00 – How IBM helps teams that aren’t seeing value from AI
21:00 – The paradox of moving too fast or too slow with AI
24:00 – Making the Golden Thread a living document
25:20 – Inside IBM Garage: speed of a startup, scale of an enterprise
27:40 – Why productivity savings, not hype, drive AI ROI
29:00 – How large organisations structure innovation teams
30:00 – The future: 800 million new products by 2026
31:00 – Why 95% will fail — and what the 5% will get right
33:10 – Final reflections: value, purpose and the human element
Featured links
Follow Matthew on LinkedIn | https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthewcertner/
IBM Garage | https://www.ibm.com/garage
Industry Conference Cleveland 2025 recap at Mind The Product | https://www.mindtheproduct.com/recap/industry-2025/ Receive SMS online on sms24.me
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