Unusual death cluster
Seven AfD candidates died prior to the 2025 local elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW), scheduled for September 14, 2025https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/six-candidates-from-germanys-rightwing-afd-die-weeks-before-election-sparking-conspiracy-theories/news-story/0d489be7fe3970e4683a8fcb2cdec3dd
https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
AfD Candidates Who Died Before the 2025 NRW Elections
https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Wolfgang Seitz (59)
16 August 2025, heart attack
Wolfgang Klinger (71)
19 August 2025, natural causes
Stefan Berendes (59)
27 August 2025, ? sudden cardiac arrest, natural causes, kept secret for privacy reasons
Ralph Klaus Norbert Lange (66)
28 August 2025, presumed heart attack
René Herford (reserve)
1 September 2025, kidney disease
Patrick Tietze (42) (reserve)
1 September 2025, Suicide
Hans Joachim Kind
Early September, natural causes
https://gfrei.news/north-rhine-westphalia-death-of-the-candidates/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
No evidence of foul play
Police and authorities have explicitly ruled out suspicious circumstances in all six cases
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/six-candidates-from-germanys-rightwing-afd-die-weeks-before-election-sparking-conspiracy-theories/news-story/0d489be7fe3970e4683a8fcb2cdec3dd?utm_source=chatgpt.com
The extreme improbability
Factors:
Tight time frame of the two waves
Restricted pool of all candidates
Age-specific probability of death
Above-average health of political candidates.
Tight geographical cluster
German economist, Stefan Homburg
“statistically virtually impossible”
https://x.com/i/grok/share/xfRCpWaGBsPa1W8R9vs81KRV2?utm_source=chatgpt.com
AfD deputy leader (MP)
Stephan Brandner “statistically striking and difficult to explain at the moment”.
“I’ve never heard of politicians from a party dying in such a short period of time before an election,”
Statistical anomaly noted
The cluster of six deaths within a short period,
concentrated on one party,
The probability of at least four deaths is approximately 0,0000127 or 0,00127% (1 in 78.740)
https://lab-news.de/en/haeufung-von-afd-todesfaellen-statistisch-extrem-unwahrscheinlich/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Wave 1 (July / early August)
Opposition candidates
FDP, UWG, Party for Animal Protection, Free Voters, Voter Group SG Zukunft.
Observation: 5 deaths in approx. 3 weeks.
Wave 2 (mid/late August to 1 September)
Almost exclusively AfD – Seitz, Klinger, Berendes, Lange, Herford, Tietze
(plus Uwe Philippsen / list “Volksabstimmung”).
Observation: 7 deaths in approx. 3 weeks.
G Frei News analysis
https://gfrei.news/author/gfrei123/
Final result after the healthy-candidate effect
Wave 1 (opposition, ≥ 5):
1 : 5,809
Wave 2 (AfD, ≥ 6):
1 : 247,351
Two waves in sequence:
1 : 1,437,176,086
Short form: ≈ 1 : 1.44 billion
This means the double cluster clearly lies in the billion range of improbability. That precisely explains why comparable cases (e.g., “four deaths before an election”) are virtually never documented historically.
These deaths have disrupted the electoral process, invalidating ballots in affected districts and requiring reprints and new nominations.
The 2024 United Kingdom general election, Thursday, 4 July 2024
Tommy Cawkwell, an RNLI volunteer, Reform UK died after being selected candidate for York Central
“passed away suddenly”, age 41, stroke
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6529851/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Men who died from stroke, average age at death, 79 years
Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, November 5, 2024,
Jennifer Pace, Republican, age 59, cardiovascular disease Receive SMS online on sms24.me
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