If Bitcoin Is a Ponzi Scheme, Then So Is Gold.
Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme? Nouriel Roubini, Paul Krugman, and Agustin Carstens, the former head of the Bank for International Settlements, have all used the word. Cory Klippsten takes the accusation seriously enough to give it its strongest form, and then shows what happens to the word on the way.A Ponzi scheme is a fraud. Someone takes money from investors, tells them it is being invested in earning returns, and then uses money from newer investors to pay the earlier ones. Bernie Madoff is the obvious recent example. Bitcoin has no company taking your dollars, no CEO promising a return, no secret strategy, and no fake account statements. The issuance schedule, the ledger, and the code are all public. Lyn Alden's article on the subject works through the SEC's own description and finds Bitcoin missing every element that makes a Ponzi a Ponzi: the organizer, the deception, the fake investment activity, and the representation that returns are being generated when they are not.
The serious version of the argument comes from Jorge Stolfi, who probably put more effort into it than anyone. Bitcoin produces no cash flow, so a seller's gain comes from a buyer, and Bitcoin owners as a group pay costs to miners, exchanges, custodians, and ETFs. Cory grants that the accounting is basically right, and argues it is simply the math of owning an asset that does not generate cash flow and costs money to secure and transact. Gold works the same way, and nobody calls gold a Ponzi scheme.
The full argument also covers the strongest objection to that comparison, which is that gold has jewelry and industrial demand and Bitcoin does not, plus Nick Szabo's 2002 essay "Shelling Out: The Origins of Money" on why human beings stored wealth in objects that generated no cash flow tens of thousands of years before anyone had a discounted cash flow model, and why money is better understood as a rational individual judgment about an object's properties than as a shared belief.
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