The Only Thing Working in This Market Right Now
The Fed hiked. The 10-year sits at 5%. Brent is over $100. Biotech, semis and software should all be down on that, and all three closed the week higher. Here is what is actually holding them up.The S&P closed down about half a percent on the week but regained its 50-day moving average, while RSI and MACD both stayed negative. Underneath it, the equal-weight S&P looks nothing like the headline index, and the setup is close to what we saw in March.
In this week's MEM Edge I walk through the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index at 32.6 and the three prior visits to 30, rank all 11 sectors by relative strength, and then drill into the groups that are working: software on the back of cybersecurity demand, semiconductors turning up, biotech and genomics, and the ARK funds making new highs. I finish with two names in groups that are broadly broken, and why both of them are going up anyway.
What is covered:
• Where the S&P and Nasdaq 100 actually closed, and what the moving averages say now
• The Bullish Percent Index level that marked the last three bottoms
• Why the equal-weight S&P is telling a different story than the headline number
• All 11 sectors sorted by relative strength
• Health care, and the conference calendar driving it
• Banks, consumer discretionary, small caps and retail on the weak side
• Software, semiconductors, biotech and medical devices on the strong side
• Genomics and innovation names inside the ARK funds
• Two breakouts in groups that should not be working
If you want the names I am watching twice a week, the MEM Edge report is where I publish them.
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0:00 The Fed hiked and the market pulled back
0:50 What is on the calendar next week
1:18 S&P 500: back above the 50-day, still not firm
2:21 Bullish Percent at 32.6 and the last three bottoms
3:22 Nasdaq 100 is the stronger chart
4:16 Equal weight S&P, and the March parallel
5:14 Ranking all 11 sectors by relative strength
6:05 Health care is working again
7:16 Banks and financials under pressure
7:55 Consumer discretionary near the July lows
8:36 The 10-year at 5% and what should be breaking
9:14 Brent over $100 keeps energy bid
9:31 Software leads, and cybersecurity is why
11:05 Semiconductors are turning
11:52 Biotech setting up
13:04 Volatility at 14
13:20 Medical devices
13:45 Small caps and retail keep breaking down
14:12 The ARK funds are making new highs
15:22 Genomics: TWST, CRSP, ABSI
16:39 Inside the innovation fund
17:40 Robinhood and the move into crypto
18:57 A farm equipment stock that should not be working
20:12 The one retailer going the other way
20:45 Course launch and close
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