US-Iran "MOU" Sets Stage for Renewed US Siege

-The US-Iran “agreement” is just an agreement to make an agreement involving a party - the US - historically incapable of making and upholding treaties, agreements, or even MOUs;

-In the most recent phase of the US’ decades-running war on Iran, Iran has simply “survived,” not “won;”

-The US failing at this juncture to topple Iran when it can resume armed aggression at any time means Iran remains at threat until the unlikely withdrawal of US forces from the region along with the draw-down of support for its various proxies in the region;

-Iran now faces either a possible longer pause it will need to race the US in preparations for the next confrontation, or another immediate disruption of any longer-term peace for the continued psuedo-ceasefire it has agreed to with Iran where it stays just under the threshold of total war with Iran while managing energy prices based on shipping disruptions and the prospect of wider war;

-The US already has two excuses ready and waiting to undo any agreement it makes with Iran including its long-established and well-used “Leave it to Bibi” option and the US’ own “intelligence community” preparing to accuse Iran of not abiding by any agreement made;

-Both options have been repeatedly used by the US to unilaterally withdraw from previous agreements made with Iran as well as to provoke armed aggression against Iran;

-The US has also discussed using its terrorist proxies in Syria now controlling the US-toppled nation to fight Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon as a means of sidestepping provisions in the US-Iranian agreement requiring the US proxy Israel to end military aggression in Lebanon;

-OPEC monthly oil reports from January and April 2026 indicate a nearly 20% decrease in energy production;

-This 20% decrease in production is the result of physical damage to energy production infrastructure from missile exchanges during the war, the filling up of storage facilities and the necessity to temporarily stop production because of that, and other factors;

-The timeline for restoring this 20% reduction in West Asian energy production spans anywhere from 6 months to a year or more;

-Within that window, the US can restart aggression and disrupt recovery by either reducing it back to a 20% reduction, or even further as part of its energy blockade of both China and Asia;

-Meanwhile the US continues expanding its confrontations with all other pillars of the emerging multipolar world including Russia and China;

References:

BBC - What's in the US-Iran agreement? (Jun. 18, 2026):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgmqzr6p9mo
Times of Israel - Ministers say Israel won’t be bound by Iran deal, as opposition castigates Netanyahu’s ‘absolute failure’ (Jun. 15, 2026):
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-vows-to-stay-in-south-lebanon-if-iran-strikes-well-hit-it-with-full-force/
Brookings Institution - Which Path to Persia (2009):
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf
Axios - Scoop: CIA director doubts Iran's intentions on deal, sources say (Jun. 15, 2026):
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/15/us-iran-deal-cia-director-ratcliffe
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (January 2026):
https://www.opec.org/assets/assetdb/momr-january-2026.pdf
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (April 2026):
https://www.opec.org/assets/assetdb/momr-april-2026.pdf
Fortune - Asia turns to U.S. oil and gas amid Iran war: ‘We get too much into that tree-hugging mode’ (Jun. 4, 2026):
https://fortune.com/2026/06/04/asia-turns-us-oil-gas-iran-war-tree-hugging/
Reuters - Trump says he talked to Syrian leader about taking on Hezbollah (Jun. 17, 2026):
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-he-talked-syrian-leader-about-taking-hezbollah-2026-06-17/
BBC - US scraps $10m bounty for arrest of Syria's new leader Sharaa (Dec. 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07gv3j818ko
BBC - From Syrian jihadist leader to rebel politician: How Abu Mohammed al-Jolani reinvented himself (Dec. 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q0w1g8zqvo

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