How to Spot Real Breakouts Using the 200-Day Moving Average

The 200-day moving average is one of the most important long-term trend indicators in technical analysis, but how can investors distinguish a meaningful breakout from a false signal? Dave Keller highlights five charts testing this critical level, including Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), UPS (UPS), and Southwest Airlines (LUV). With earnings season driving significant price moves, these charts offer valuable lessons in identifying potential trend reversals and recognizing when a breakout or breakdown deserves attention.

Dave explores Tesla's confirmed breakout above the 200-day moving average, Meta's deteriorating technical picture, and the critical support levels facing semiconductor stocks. He also highlights emerging opportunities in UPS and Southwest Airlines while demonstrating how RSI, relative strength, Fibonacci retracements, trendlines, and follow-through days can help validate important technical signals. Finally, learn how to use the StockCharts Screener to identify stocks crossing their 200-day moving averages and build a more systematic approach to monitoring changes in long-term trends.

LINKS
StockCharts Screener: https://stockcharts.com/screener/
Dave's daily market recap show: http://marketmisbehavior.com/chartthis

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0:00 Intro
0:35 Tesla: will earnings push it above the 200-day?
0:56 How to read these charts
3:02 Tesla's confluence of resistance
4:41 Why one day above the 200-day isn't enough
6:00 Tesla's trendline break
7:46 RSI above 60 confirms the breakout
9:46 Meta: failed breakouts above the 200-day
11:16 Meta's double top and Fibonacci support
12:49 RSI below 40 and weak relative performance
13:46 Three more charts testing the 200-day
14:08 SMH: moving average limbo
17:16 How to set a price alert
17:37 UPS reclaims the 200-day
19:29 Southwest Airlines breakout
20:39 How I use the 200-day moving average
21:30 Find 200-day breakouts with the Screener
22:28 Wrap-up

❗️DISCLAIMER
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither the Show Participants
nor StockCharts.com guarantee any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on the show.
Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value.

Investments or strategies mentioned in this show may not be suitable for you and
you should make your own independent decision regarding them. This material
does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation
or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you.

You should strongly consider seeking advice from your own investment advisor

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