Will The Midterms Break The Bullish Dam?
Will The Midterms Break The Bullish Dam?With the midterm elections approaching, investors face a growing list of concerns, including rising oil prices, inflation, interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, and questions surrounding the sustainability of the AI-driven bull market.
Despite these concerns and mixed signals from the weight of the evidence, the S&P 500 remains only approximately 2.5% below its recent closing high. Are the markets underestimating the risks, or is the underlying bullish trend more resilient than the headlines suggest?
This week's video examines the evidence from both sides, using historical comparisons and current market charts to evaluate whether the bull market is showing signs of meaningful deterioration.
We examine rising Treasury yields and oil prices, volatility in the bond market, high-yield credit spreads, and the relative performance of defensive sectors, energy, industrials, technology, and AI-related stocks. We also compare current conditions with previous periods of significant market weakness, including 2000–2002, 2007–2008, and 2022.
Importantly, several key stock market indexes continue to trade above longer-term trend measures, credit spreads remain relatively contained, and defensive consumer staples have yet to demonstrate the type of sustained relative strength often associated with more serious market declines.
At the same time, recent volatility, shifting sector leadership, and emerging technical concerns remind us that bullish trends are not immune to changing economic and financial conditions.
Will the midterm elections provide the catalyst that breaks the bullish dam, or will the weight of the evidence continue to favor the longer-term uptrend? Receive SMS online on sms24.me
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