Deconstructing the AI Trade: Market Meltdown, Correction or Clean up?
The market's sharp drop on November 5, driven by a decline in tech, renewed a question that has been heard all year of whether this is the final call on the AI trade, where investors buy all stocks AI-related and hope to ride the AI buzz to riches. In this session, I argue that as the AI disruption ages, it is time to break the companies in the ecosystem down into AI builders (the hyperscalers and others building the data centers), AI suppliers (the chip and electrical equipment makers, power and real estate) who supply the ingredients for the AI architecture and AI product companies (which use the AI architecture to make AI agents, products and services). These AI groups are linked in operations to each other, with one company's costs becoming the other company's revenues, and have very different business models. To assess how they have moved (together and apart), I look at 35 publicly traded companies and their market cap movements between the end of 2022 and 2026, with a special focus on the most recent year. In a final section, I look at how I see what I call the big market delusion (where the allure of a big market combined with overconfidence) is playing out with AI, and use it to put the market action in context.Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/AITrade.pdf
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