US feels war pinch as Iran claims victory amid impasse, experts debate

Al Jazeera hosted a panel discussion on the US-Iran stalemate with two guests: Rob Geist Pinfold, Lecturer in International Security at King's College London, and Zohreh Kharazmi, Associate Professor at the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran.
Rob Geist Pinfold argued that neither side wants a return to direct conflict.
The US is "feeling the pinch" with gas prices at a four-year high, while Iran needs time to regroup after military degradation. However, neither wants to be the first to compromise. He noted that the IRGC has consolidated its power, functioning as a "shadow state," and has incentives to prolong the conflict. Ordinary Iranians are paying the price, with the IMF forecasting Iran's economy will contract significantly. He cited up to 30,000 killed in recent protests over dire economic conditions.
Zohreh Kharazmi countered that Western media overestimates Iran's economic problems. She argued that 200 million barrels of floating oil have been sold, and Iran's new security paradigm in the Strait of Hormuz has broken sanctions structures. She dismissed reports of mass protests as "fabricated lies," accusing the West of inflating casualty numbers to "whitewash what Israelis did in Gaza." She insisted that decision-making is collective via the Supreme National Security Council, not dominated by the IRGC, and that millions of Iranians continue to show support for the Islamic Republic nightly.
Both agreed the IRGC does better in conflict, but disagreed sharply on whether ordinary Iranians support or suffer from that dynamic.

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