Behind the Myth of “Billions in Arms” Flowing into Ukraine
- Despite the US and Europe sending "billions in arms" to Ukraine, the quantities and quality of these weapons fall far short of what is necessary to effect change on the battlefield;- Javelin missile production, for example is approximately 200 per month, with a 19% hit rate versus 375 armored vehicles produced by Russia monthly;
- Even if all Javelin missiles produced went to Ukraine (which they do not), it would still fall far short in being able to destroy Russian armor produced over the same period of time;
- Numbers for TOW missiles and NLAW systems are likewise low, when added together, still are not enough to degrade Russian armor on the battlefield sufficiently;
- A similar story can be told regarding Western artillery shell and air defense system production;
- Western rhetoric regarding the renewed flow of US weapons to Ukraine is not based on sound analysis, but is instead propaganda aimed at overriding the catastrophe real analysis says will unfold if this proxy war continues;
References:
Business Insider - Like the F-16, French Mirage 2000-5 fighters are good planes, but they aren't the best Western jets for Ukraine (June 8, 2024):
https://www.businessinsider.com/mirage-fighter-jets-good-planes-arent-best-western-aircraft-ukraine-2024-6
Business Insider - Attack on Russian warships at a Black Sea naval base shows Ukraine's big offensive is more than meets the eye and making Crimea 'untenable' for Moscow's forces (September 2023):
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-missile-attack-naval-base-helps-make-crimea-untenable-russia-2023-9
Bloomberg - America’s War Machine Can’t Make Basic Artillery Fast Enough (June 7, 2024):
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-us-global-war-weapons-race/
Bloomberg - Putin Is Running Out of Time to Achieve Breakthrough in Ukraine (June 8, 2024):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-08/putin-is-running-out-of-time-to-achieve-breakthrough-in-ukraine
CNN - Ukraine stabilizes the north after surprise Russian push – but faces fresh pressure in the east (June 9, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/08/europe/ukraine-stabilizes-north-pressure-east-russia-intl/index.html
Telegraph - Russia thwarted over Kharkiv after cross-border Himars strikes (June 8, 2024):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/08/russia-ukraine-kharkiv-key-missile-launch-sites-counter-att/
US Army, Armor Magazine - Infantry Brigade Combat Team Scout Platoon AntiArmor Engagements at the Joint Readiness Training Center (Winter 2021):
https://www.moore.army.mil/armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2021/Winter/1Brown21.pdf
Lockheed Martin - Ramping Up: Lockheed Martin Steadily Increasing Production of High-Demand Systems (February 2024):
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/2024/ramping-up--lockheed-martin-steadily-increasing-production-o.html
CSIS - Will the United States Run Out of Javelins Before Russia Runs Out of Tanks? (April 2022):
https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks
Army Recognition - Russia Ramps Up Production of T-80BVM Tanks Amidst Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine (April 2024):
https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2024/russia-ramps-up-production-of-t-80bvm-tanks-amidst-ongoing-conflict-in-ukraine
CNN - Exclusive: Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine (March 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
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