Iran holds leverage in Hormuz as US military options remain limited, experts say
A possible breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations is being viewed cautiously by analysts, amid continuing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over sanctions relief.In a discussion panel on Al Jazeera, Dania Thafer of the Gulf International Forum and Martin Kelly of the EOS Risk Group said any engagement could be a step forward, but warned the process has been a "rollercoaster."
Key issues remain unresolved, including whether the nuclear file will be discussed upfront or kicked down the road.
Kelly argued Iran has full control of the strait through asymmetric warfare, making military escorts unviable. He pointed to the short-lived Project Freedom and said weeks of US and Israeli bombardment have failed to degrade Iranian capability, concluding that "probably only diplomacy is the route to progression."
On reports that the US has agreed to waive oil sanctions during talks, Thafer questioned the logic of lifting sanctions while maintaining the blockade, saying "one hand gives and the other hand takes."
Kelly also noted that three US warships transited the strait last weekend under intense bombardment, proving escorting commercial ships is unsustainable.
On the 1,500 vessels and 20,000 crew stranded in the strait, Thafer said the onus should be on Iran from a humanitarian perspective.
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