Thursday, Plague update
Update, Russia Plague Lab LeakUnconfirmed reports about a possible second death
Russia is now openly denying reports of a second case
WHO is checking in with Russia
Central unanswered question
What pathogen caused Darya Shipilova's fatal pneumonia?
Has Yersinia pestis been definitively excluded by laboratory testing?
Russian public health watchdog, thousands of tests, no dangerous pathogens have been found.
Darya Shipilova probably did not die of plague
Causes for concern
POTUS to call Putin soon (big problem for Russia)
US formally, confidential diplomatic communication, (démarche)
Scale of the Russian response
Staff quarantined, local worker instructed to wear masks, several hospitals in Irkutsk closed for a three-week quarantine, Doctors “already openly talking about plague”.
Public events in Irkutsk, cancelled, citywide community clean-up due last Saturday, was officially postponed
Not acting like its plague, acting like it’s something else, e.g. death in Arizona last year.
US, about 7 cases per year, usually from Prairie dogs
1924, last human to human transmission in US
Plague is endemic in Russia, especially SE Russia, near Mongolia.
Russia acting like it is a transmissible disease
Potential to be viral
Plague escape protocols are well rehearsed
Deaths despite antibiotics
Drug resistance plague?
Death despite prophylactic antibiotics
Engineering antibiotic resistance is possible
Mongolia, Kazakhstan, impose “health surveillance”
Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute, history
For Anti-Plague, read biolab.
How much Russia is using AI for research
Lack of transparency in UK and US as well.
Known Unknowns
Precise diagnostic and PM reports
Microbiological reports, genome sequences
Route of exposure
Exactly what happened in the lab
Did containment and reporting procedures work
Russian covert motivation?
Weaponised microorganism?
Level of antibiotic resistance
Enhance person to person spread capabilities
Darya Shipilova (Glubina)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/10/07/us-formally-demands-russia-explain-plague-outbreak/
Svetlana Shipilova
“I know the truth,”
“I’m having to fend off stupid acquaintances who believed all this – the clever ones didn’t believe it, of course.
“Not even all medical professionals understand it’s impossible to break a test tube like that,”
“Even if you fling it at the wall. Only an amateur could say something like that.
“Even hypothetically, you simply can’t spill what’s inside or break the tube – they’re that well protected.”
“They simply let my daughter die.”
Russia and transparency
1979 anthrax accident in Sverdlovsk, former Soviet Union.
Spores were accidentally released from a military facility.
Death toll, CDC puts it at a minimum of around 65 to 70 deaths from (inhalational of anthrax), deaths occurred April 1979.
May 1992, Boris Yeltsin acknowledged that it had in fact resulted from Soviet military bio-weapons work.
About 13 years of denial.
Chernobyl accident, April 26th, 1986
Explosions, graphite fire, huge amount of radioactive material into the atmosphere.
Pripyat evacuated 36 hours later
May Day parades, Kyiv went ahead, May 1st
Alarms in Sweden and England
New R value?
Madagascar 2017 — mean R₀ = 2.4
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30450266/
Estimation of Pneumonic Plague Transmission in Madagascar, August-November 2017
2,500 cases
CDC, Pneumonic plague
R₀ = 1.18
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/rr/rr7003a1.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Came from CDC analysis of all reported primary pneumonic plague cases in the US from 1900 to 2009.
San Francisco in 1904
Oakland in 1919
Los Angeles in 1924. Receive SMS online on sms24.me
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