Is Putin giving up in Ukraine?
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In this video we’re going to try and unpack Putin’s recent comments: How seriously can we take them? Do they represent Putin, in some sense, conceding defeat? Will Europe step up in negotiations? And what does it all mean for the trajectory of the war?
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Sources:
Putin’s comments on war coming to an end:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79718
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8p4j2jzwwo
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/kremlin-says-no-specifics-ending-ukraine-war-despite-putins-words-6115926
ISW assessment of Russian offensive:
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2026/
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9-2026/
NYT on Russian rate of advance:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/10/world/europe/russia-ukraine-putin-war.html
Russian casualty rate:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/11/why-is-putin-now-talking-about-the-war-in-ukraine-coming-to-an-end
Russian energy infrastructure hit by Ukraine:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-baltic-oil-ports-halt-week-into-ukrainian-drone-attacks-finnish-border-2026-04-01/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-renews-attacks-russian-energy-sites-what-has-been-hit-2026-04-22/
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukrainian-long-range-drones-are-turning-russias-size-into-a-weakness/
Russia’s weak economic forecast:
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/12/russia-cuts-2026-growth-forecast-as-oil-revenues-and-wartime-pressures-weigh-on-economy-a92733
Yuri Ushakov’s comments:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75824
Stefan Meister’s analysis of Putin’s comments:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/11/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war.html
Europe considers talks with Russia:
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/05/11/we-need-to-make-up-our-mind-eu-still-split-over-direct-talks-with-russia
FT report on Ukraine and Russia cooling on US-led talks:
https://www.ft.com/content/09273889-e9b5-4317-b989-911c84df36fa?syn-25a6b1a6=1
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