Incentives & Illusions in Prediction Markets | Bitcoin 2026
Prediction markets are "a new form of media" on par with the printing press and most of the world doesn't realize it yet. At the Bitcoin 2026 Conference, Bitcoin Magazine Pro's Matt Crosby sits down with LayerTwo Labs founder Paul Sztorc (a prediction market advocate on Bitcoin since 2013) and University of Oregon mathematician Micah Warren. They walk through why Polymarket and Kalshi are barely scratching the surface, the under-explored power of conditional "if-then" markets, and why Bitcoin self-custody is the natural foundation for the next generation of prediction markets.Trade Bitcoin's next move on Duelbits Predict — get 100% cashback on your first bet, up to $100. Bitcoin Magazine exclusive. 👉 bitcoinmagazine.com/duelbits-predict
Use code BM10 to get 10% off Bitcoin 2027 Conference in Nashville: https://2027.b.tc
🔶 Moderator: Matt Crosby - Bitcoin Magazine Pro
🔶 Paul Sztorc - LayerTwo Labs, Inc.
🔶 Micah Warren - University of Oregon
🔶 Derek Orr - Predyx
Chapters:
01:00 — What Is A Prediction Market? Paul Sztorc's New-Media Framing
03:00 — Why Prediction Markets Beat Polls: Micah Warren On Skin In The Game
05:00 — Prediction Markets vs. Gambling: The Positive-EV Difference
07:30 — Why Bitcoin Spot Markets Already Function Like Prediction Markets
11:00 — Hivemind Drivechains: Self-Custody Prediction Markets On Bitcoin
15:00 — Conditional Markets: The Under-Explored Frontier ("If We Did X, Would Y Happen?")
19:00 — Manipulation, Market Resolution & Oracle Problems
22:00 — Multidimensional Markets & Real-World Policy Applications
25:30 — Gambling Addiction Risk & The Next 10 Years Of Prediction Markets
#Bitcoin #PredictionMarkets #BitcoinPredictionMarkets #PaulSztorc #MicahWarren #MattCrosby #LayerTwoLabs #Hivemind #Drivechains #UniversityOfOregon #BitcoinMagazinePro #BitcoinConference #Bitcoin2026 #BitcoinMagazine #ConditionalMarkets #Futarchy #DecisionMarkets #Polymarket #Kalshi #ElectionBetting #SportsBetting #ScopeInsensitivity #BitcoinCollateral #SelfCustody #RobinHanson #HalFinney #SoundMoney #BitcoinAdoption #Decentralization
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions. Receive SMS online on sms24.me
TubeReader video aggregator is a website that collects and organizes online videos from the YouTube source. Video aggregation is done for different purposes, and TubeReader take different approaches to achieve their purpose.
Our try to collect videos of high quality or interest for visitors to view; the collection may be made by editors or may be based on community votes.
Another method is to base the collection on those videos most viewed, either at the aggregator site or at various popular video hosting sites.
TubeReader site exists to allow users to collect their own sets of videos, for personal use as well as for browsing and viewing by others; TubeReader can develop online communities around video sharing.
Our site allow users to create a personalized video playlist, for personal use as well as for browsing and viewing by others.
@YouTubeReaderBot allows you to subscribe to Youtube channels.
By using @YouTubeReaderBot Bot you agree with YouTube Terms of Service.
Use the @YouTubeReaderBot telegram bot to be the first to be notified when new videos are released on your favorite channels.
Look for new videos or channels and share them with your friends.
You can start using our bot from this video, subscribe now to Incentives & Illusions in Prediction Markets | Bitcoin 2026
What is YouTube?
YouTube is a free video sharing website that makes it easy to watch online videos. You can even create and upload your own videos to share with others. Originally created in 2005, YouTube is now one of the most popular sites on the Web, with visitors watching around 6 billion hours of video every month.
