回顾911，CIA做错了什么？
【ep262 视频描述】2026年2月，美国对伊朗开战，公开宣布的目标里最重要的一条，是颠覆伊朗政权、扶植一个自己能掌控的傀儡政权。可打到现在，哈梅内伊被炸死了，上台的是他儿子，而且比他父亲更强硬；美国实际上已经放弃了政权更迭。军事上，情报界严重低估了伊朗的导弹库存和射程；霍尔木兹海峡被伊朗一把扣住，油价从战前的70美元一度冲到126美元，而美国政府对此毫无办法。
这一期从25年前的9·11讲起：调查记者西摩·赫什在2001年那篇《问题出在哪里》里记下了四个细节——住不进目标社会的情报员、把招募线人变成灾难的"清理令"、有招牌却没有权力的反恐中心、以及连同一个房间都不肯待的CIA和国家安全局。二十五年过去，三次改革、上千次国会简报、一个到2017年就没人负责的情报共享计划，改到最后，机构更臃肿了，而每个部门首先守住的，还是自己的一亩三分地。情报体系的问题，和伊朗战争里的误判，是同一件事的两头。
真正难的地方在这儿：改革一个庞大的官僚机构，难的从来不是多设几个办公室、多任命几个协调员，而是让一群各自有预算、有权限、有地盘的人，主动把手里的东西交出来。情报交出去共享了，事情做成了功劳算谁的？出了问题又该谁来背锅？趋利避害，就是人的天性。
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【章节】
00:00 9·11 犯过的错，正在伊朗重演
01:11 赫什笔下的情报体系：四个细节
08:13 二十五年改革，烂在了哪
09:55 美国对伊朗的战争：一次压力测试
13:31 阿富汗：同一个错误
14:07 改革最难的不是设机构，是人心 Receive SMS online on sms24.me
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