The Real Problem Isn’t Inflation. It’s the Consumer
The CPI report sent stocks lower and Treasury yields higher, but Tom Bowley sees a different warning beneath the stock market: consumer discretionary weakness. He explains why he sees a consumer problem, not an inflation problem, and why VIX 18 matters next.Under the surface, the bigger concern is the widening divide between consumer staples and consumer discretionary stocks. Tom tracks XLY at critical support, the weakening XLY/XLP relationship and a rising staples-accumulation signal, then uses StockCharts MarketCarpet to uncover relative strength. He also examines the unusual reversal in the 10-year Treasury yield after the CPI report, why gold and real estate aren’t confirming his definition of an inflation problem, and the S&P 500 levels that come into play if the VIX breaks 18.
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00:00 Core CPI & Market Selloff
00:36 Consumer Problem, Not Inflation Problem
03:06 Staples vs. Discretionary
05:08 XLY at Critical Support
08:51 Consumer Staples Warning Signal
10:09 Finding Strength With MarketCarpet
12:12 Core CPI & Treasury Yield Reversal
13:53 Why Tom Isn’t Buying the Inflation Scare
15:58 VIX 18 & Key S&P 500 Levels
17:32 Netflix & the Consumer
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