Bitcoin Treasury Math: Understanding NAV Gaps
Adam Livingston provides a step-by-step framework for analyzing Bitcoin treasury equities with six inputs: BTC held, spot price, fully diluted shares, cash, debt, and market cap. We calculate NAV, M-NAV, and show why share prices can diverge from per-share Bitcoin value. Examples with Sequans and EMPD highlight how structural factors like float, liquidity, and information lag shape the NAV gap.Disclosures
Swan provides treasury management services to Sequans. This video is educational content only, not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset. Figures are point-in-time and can change with Bitcoin price and corporate actions. Discounts can persist or widen, leverage changes both upside and downside exposure, and fees and liquidity affect realized outcomes.
Timestamps
00:00:21 - Understanding Bitcoin Treasury Management
00:01:45 - Defining Net Asset Value (NAV) and Market NAV (MNAV)
00:03:00 - Why Share Prices Can Diverge from Bitcoin Value
00:05:30 - The Five Forces Impacting Bitcoin Equity Pricing
00:06:12 - Template for Analyzing Bitcoin Treasuries
00:07:06 - Case Study: Sequans' Bitcoin Valuation
00:08:00 - Case Study: Empory Digital's Bitcoin Valuation
00:08:44 - Exploring the Gap Closure Effect on Share Prices
00:09:58 - Key Risks and Triggers for Bitcoin Treasury Equities
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