Tarek Hassan — Trade War and the Dollar Anchor
Tarek Hassan joins the Global Challenges Research Seminar to present “Trade War and the Dollar Anchor” (with Thomas Mertens, Jingye Wang, and Tony Zhang).Abstract:
We develop a general‑equilibrium model in which the safety of a country’s currency and its choice of exchange‑rate stabilizations arise endogenously. Calibrated to pre‑2025 data, the model replicates the U.S. dollar’s safety premium, low Treasury yields, and its status as the world’s anchor currency. Introducing symmetric tariffs that isolate U.S. goods markets from the world erodes the U.S. dollar’s safety premium, raises U.S. interest rates, and lowers the world market value of U.S. firms. For sufficiently high tariffs, small economies optimally re‑peg to the euro, precipitating a phase shift to a euro‑centric monetary system and a global welfare loss. The analysis implies that persistent trade wars may threaten the financial privileges the United States derives from the dollar’s international role.
Tarek Hassan is a Professor of Economics at Boston University. Professor Hassan’s research focuses on international finance, macro-finance, and social factors in economic growth. Some of his recent papers study the effects of uncertainty on firm behavior and on the allocation of capital across countries. Another set of papers studies the effect of social structure on economic growth and the effect of historical migration and ethnic diversity on foreign direct investment. Hassan’s work has appeared in the American Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Journal of Finance, and other top-journals. He is a research fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Center for Economic Policy Research. Receive SMS online on sms24.me
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