Only 25% of Stocks Are Holding Up
The S&P 500 only fell 0.7% this week. Underneath it, breadth collapsed to 15% of stocks above their 20-day moving average, the equal weight index broke its 50-day, and health care had its worst week in months.Mary Ellen McGonagle shows you what the index is hiding, the two historical precedents that match this setup, and the exact screen she's running to build a watch list into Wednesday's Fed decision.
Oil closed at 104.50, back above the key 100 level. CPI and PPI both came in above estimates. The ten year is at 4.975 and pressing toward 5%. That combination of rising rates and rising oil is what makes this week worth paying attention to, because it has precedent.
In this episode:
The S&P held its 50-day, but the equal weight index broke below its own, and breadth fell to roughly 15% of stocks above their 20-day before Friday's bounce. Health care dropped 3.5%. Consumer discretionary printed a death cross. Software, biotech, regional banks and the Russell 2000 are all under pressure.
What's left holding the index up is the mega caps. Meta, Apple and Amazon all reclaimed key levels this week.
Mary Ellen also covers the two historical precedents that match this setup, and closes with the exact four-part setup she's screening for right now to build a watch list into Wednesday.
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0:00 Oil above 100 and inflation running hot
1:21 Why Wednesday's Fed decision is the whole story
1:39 S&P 500 holds the 50-day
2:10 The equal weight S&P breaks down
3:27 Two precedents: 2023 and March 2025
5:10 Breadth collapses to 15% of stocks
6:10 Yields overlaid against the market
7:03 The ten year at 4.975
7:32 Technology holds up, communication services doesn't
8:26 Health care drops 3.5%
9:28 A death cross in consumer discretionary
10:02 Industrials and financials lose support
11:02 Brent crude at 104.50
11:30 Semiconductors rally under a falling 50-day
12:04 The VIX touched 18 and came right back
12:29 Software and biotech under pressure
14:00 Regional banks and the Russell 2000
14:28 The M7 is holding this market up
16:45 The setup I'm screening for right now
17:00 Taiwan Semi, Corning, and Intel
19:31 Wrap
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